With the British government implementing new rules for mandatory use of face masks in shops and on public transport, in response to the new Omicron variant, it looks a lot like a repeat of last year. No one wants another lockdown but if cases are going up and if new variants for the virus prove too great a threat to public health then the government will be left with no choice but to implement yet another nation wide lockdown. 

 

What’s the significance of the new variant?

 

The introduction of mandatory facemasks in shops and on public transport was sparked by the new Omicron variant, which originated in South Africa, when 2 people tested positive for the new variant of coronavirus. To stunt the spread of the Omicron variant the British government is introducing these restrictions on Tuesday in the hopes that the new variant doesn’t spread like wildfire as despite the fact that the qualities of Omicron are not fully known it is feared that it is increasingly more transmittable that previous variants. 

 

What will winter look like for Britain?

The number of people testing positive for COVID-19 is slowly but surely increasing. However, it should be noted that the virus is more easily transmitted in the winter so it’s nothing out of the ordinary for cases to rise during the winter season. During 2020 to 2021 the virus was the leading cause of excess winter mortality, accounting for 84.0% of all excess winter deaths in England alone. And so with a new, and quite possibly more dangerous, variant now popping up not just in the UK but in Europe, a lockdown is almost inevitable to ensure as few deaths as possible. Despite the dangers posed by the combination of the winter season and Omicron it is likely the lockdown won’t come into effect until after Christmas and the New Year as the government won’t want to anger people by stopping them from celebrating these events and they also won’t want to negatively affect the economy by restricting people’s ability to spend during the festive season. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

 

Overall, the chances of there being a fourth lockdown are high. But with three lockdowns under the public’s belt it should be expected that the public will find it easier to adapt to the changes than last time. Another lockdown would likely last from just past New Years up until late winter to mid spring- so when cases would naturally start to decrease.