Russia wants the West to promise that Ukraine will not join its NATO defensive alliance, and although the two sides are negotiating, these demands are unlikely to be met. What happens next could jeopardize Europe's entire security structure.

Russia says it has no plans to attack Ukraine: and armed forces chief Valery Gerasimov even denounced reports of an impending invasion as a lie. But tensions are high, and President Vladimir Putin has threatened "appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures" if what he calls the West's aggressive approach continues. NATO’s secretary-general warns the risk of conflict is real and President Biden says his guess is that Russia will move in. The US says it knows of Russian plans to boost its forces near Ukraine.

As stated above; the West has been fixated on the crisis along the Ukrainian border over the past several months, with Russia poised to invade at any time. Or so the West is led to believe, a full-scale invasion, at least in the traditional sense, is not just unlikely but not viable.

Russia has used the threat of invasion to further force the West into talks surrounding NATO’s further movements east, with Russia wanting guarantees that Ukraine will not be made a NATO member, and therefore NATO’s military gains will stop spreading eastwards towards Russia. Regardless of the bluff, Putin is playing, Russia’s preparations for conflict are genuine, although they have to be in order for the West to take their demands seriously. In this sense, Russia has gambled and won; as despite nothing concrete being agreed yet, the troop build-up and media hysteria that followed has brought the US to the negotiating table, and talks, which normally would be disregarded, are now ongoing.

Russia has also achieved secondary goals with their recent escalations; they have managed to switch the narrative, so now issues like Russia’s occupation of Crimea and continuing ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine have been swept aside as more urgent problems are at hand. This military build-up along the Ukrainian border is something seen in both 2015 and 2016, with no invasion coming via that. Albeit, the build-up this time is noticeably larger, this is simply an outcome of NATO’s further advancements east.

Further proof that no large-scale invasion is planned is the fact that despite Russia amassing heavy numbers, they don’t have the manpower, nor equipment to annex the entire nation. Alongside this, a small-scale invasion has little benefits to Russia and would be foolish on their behalf. The likelihood of a larger-scale conflict occurring because of all this is unlikely. What is likely, however, is a series of subverted and calculated acts of sabotage within Ukraine; most likely via supported separatist groups in the east.