This map reveals the six London boroughs projected to become coronavirus hotspots within a fortnight, putting them at risk of local lockdowns.

Imperial College London's interactive maps show clusters of red zones in each UK nation, as of Friday.

But the picture looks much worse two weeks from now, with the first hotspots in London and the Home Counties emerging and more popping up in the North, the Midlands, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

A projection for October 2 shows Barking and Dagenham, Windsor and Maidenhead, Dudley, Nottingham, York, Scarborough, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Northumberland, Barrow-in-Furness, Belfast, the Scottish Borders and Bridgend in South Wales.

It means they are 75 per cent to 100 per cent likely to become coronavirus hotspots.

This Is Local London: This is what the UK is expected to look like in two weeks, with hotspots in redThis is what the UK is expected to look like in two weeks, with hotspots in red

Other places projected to become hotspots within a fortnight include East Lothian, Stockport, Selby, Calderdale, South Ribble, Broxtowe, Walsall, Rugby, Corby, Blaby, Hertsmere, Spelthorne and five more places in London - Hounslow, Enfield, Redbridge, Newham and Havering.

Another map shows the change in new infections, with dark pink for "increasing" and light pink for "likely increasing". It predicts infections are increasing across most of the UK.

Only a handful of places are dark green, meaning "decreasing", or light green, meaning "likely decreasing".

Cases are decreasing in Swindon, and likely decreasing in Ashford in Kent and four places in Scotland - Carlisle, Perth and Kinross, Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire.


Experts have warned that deaths are expected to soar over the coming weeks as the virus continues to spread.

The UK's current R rate is as high as 1.4, meaning Covid-19 is out of control.

R is the number of people each infected person passes the virus on to, on average, and it needs to be kept below one in order to stay in control.

Hospital admissions are doubling roughly every week, and there are reports that the Government's scientific advisers have suggested a two-week national lockdown in England in October to curb the spread of the virus and protect the NHS.

Imperial College London created the maps, which are updated daily, to reveal areas of concern and encourage local authorities to take action before it is too late.

Researchers from Imperial College London define a hotspot as a local authority where there are more than 50 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 of the population per week.

Their map uses figures on daily and weekly reported deaths and mathematical modelling to calculate the probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

It also gives estimates on whether cases are likely to increase or decrease, and the probability of the R number being greater than one.

If it is higher than one it indicates an outbreak is out of control and cases will continue to increase.

The predictions are based on the current government measures to curb the spread of coronavirus, and each local authority is treated independently of its neighbours in the modelling.

An increase in cases in a local authority can be due to a rise in testing, which the model does not account for, the researchers said.

It also does not take demographic factors into consideration.

Next coronavirus 'hotspots'?


- Barking and Dagenham

- Barrow-in-Furness

- Blaby

- Broxtowe

- Calderdale

- Corby

- Dudley

- Enfield

- Hartlepool

- Havering

- Hertsmere

- Hounslow

- Middlesbrough

- Newham

- Northumberland

- Nottingham

- Redbridge

- Rugby

- Scarborough

- Selby

- South Ribble

- Spelthorne

- Stockport

- Walsall

- Windsor and Maidenhead

- York

Northern Ireland

- Belfast


- East Lothian

- Scottish Borders


- Bridgend