A FLU pandemic could infect 1.85 million Londoners, a plan to combat the outbreak of the deadly virus has revealed.

It's predicted one in four Londoners could catch the virus, but the most susceptible would be children and young adults.

The Mayor of London Ken Livingstone today announced a new multi-agency plan to keep the capital "moving" in the event of an outbreak.

Under the plan, staff working for London's public services - including the police, firefighters, Tube and bus workers and the Mayor's office - would be given priority access to anti-viral drugs should it strike the capital.

Mr Livingstone said that the 100,000 packs of the anti-viral drug, Tamiflu, would be given to Greater London Authority Group workers to help keep "key public services" running.

'Severe impact'

"I have a duty to ensure as much as possible, the smooth running of London in any situation and the pandemic flu response plan is an important part of this," Mr Livingstone said.

"Any pandemic could have a severe impact on the economic and social life of a city.

"So it is essential to equip the men and women who keep Londoners safe and keep the capital moving, with a plan that clearly outlines the necessary steps to protect key services."

Antivirals can be used as a prevention or as a treatment and could help reduce the duration and severity of the illness. Public service workers would have direct access to an emergency call centre and medical assessment.

The drugs, worth £1 million, are being kept in a secret warehouse in London. Because of the risk of theft, the Met police will guard the stockpiles 24 hours a day.

Vaccine trial

The GLA Pandemic Plan said a vaccine to stop the unknown virus would take up to six months to develop.

Meanwhile, the first clinical trials of a vaccine for the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain were today presented to the UK Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency.

If granted, the trial, by PowerMed, a UK biotechnology company, would take place in London.

Plans to deal with a flu pandemic in the capital are to be tested in a city-wide exercise in the Autumn, Regional Public Health Group and NHS representatives said.

Contingency plans such as temporary mortuaries and coping with shortages of doctors and nurses due to sickness are being drawn up.

London Assembly Health and Public Services Committee chair Joanne McCartney said: "We are due for another flu pandemic and it is reassuring to hear that detailed plans are being made so London can best cope."

The Department of Health said that 50,000 in Britain could be killed by a pandemic.

DoH is building up a stockpile of antiviral drugs for the use of the public. UK and non-UK residents will be expected to have equal access to drugs.

Symptoms

It's thought the flu would hit in several "waves" - each lasting about 15 weeks.

Symptoms include fever, headache, extreme physical weakness, fatigue, muscle and joint pains, dry cough, sore throat and stuffy nose.

Evidence showed that face masks wouldn't help protect people from the pandemic flu.

"Current evidence suggests that face masks are of no use for the general public as pandemic flu is transmitted by large droplets rather than aerosol spread," the Pandemic Plan said.

The last flu pandemic hit in 1918, killing 50 million people worldwide.

Pandemic Plan

Key features of the Greater London Authority Group Pandemic Plan are:

  • A command and control structure to implement the plan and ensure vital services continue to operate in the capital.
  • Anti-viral drugs held at a central medical store and released in line with agreed protocol and daily assessment of demand.
  • Occupational health staff to assess symptoms over the telephone before any Tamiflu drugs are distributed.
  • A number of hubs set up to distribute the drugs to Greater London Authority group staff.
  • A system of supply chain management set up to replenish stocks at each of the hubs, in line with demand.
  • Once a pandemic strain is identified, detailed advice made available to reduce the impact of the pandemic.